University Of South Alabama Weather Forecast

Current Conditions

Forecast for Mobile, Alabama

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Thursday	Friday	Saturday
Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Isolated Showers and thunderstorms
Rain Chance: 10%	Rain Chance: 10%	Rain Chance: 20%
High: 91 Low: 73	High:86 Low: 75	High: 83 Low: 75
Winds: NW	Winds: N	Winds: N

Detailed Forecast

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid-70's. Light and variable winds.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower-90's, lows in the lower-70's. Northwest winds 5-10mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower-90's, lows in the lower-70's. North winds 5-10mph.

Saturday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower-90's, lows in the mid-70's. North winds 5-10mph.

Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid-80's, lows in the mid-70's. East winds 10-15mph. Chance of rain is 40%.

Forecast Discussion

Short-term (Tonight and Thursday):

As Fay continues to move up the east coast, our area will remain under northerly flow over the short-term. There is also some drier in the mid-levels which is helping to keep the atmosphere capped…I don't expect much, if any, convection through tomorrow.

Long-term:

Our area will remain under northerly flow through the beginning of the weekend and conditions should remain dry. However, by Saturday, there could be a slight increase in moisture so we could see some scattered showers/storms, especially along the coast with the help of the seabreeze…

Beyond that, the focus turns towards Gustav. Currently, Gustav is struggling near the coast of Haiti with the influence of the high terrain still influencing its strength. Once it gets away from Haiti , it should begin strengthening more rapidly. So, right now there is a waiting game of when it will move away from the coast and when it will begin strengthening. This should happen over the next 12-24 hours…

After that, most of the models bring Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico as a strengthening hurricane. After that, the models diverge. Right now, they are forecasting a landfall anywhere from the TX coast to the FL/AL border. The HWRF model has shifted east some, while the GFDL has shifted its forecast back to the west. Regardless, most of the models keep the storm to our west which puts our area on the worst side. So a landfall along the central LA coast would still increase our rain chances late in the weekend into early next week.

Forecaster: Roger Martin

Tropical Weather Discussion

As of 4:00pm, Tropical Storm Gustav was located 90 miles southeast of Guantanamo , Cuba . Because of the continued interaction with land, it has weakened some more and the winds are now down to 50mph. It is moving around 3mph to the WNW. So, it will continue to slowly move away from the coast which will keep the strengthening from being too rapid in the short-term. But, more rapid strengthening is forecast once it moves away from the land.

The NHC official track has Gustav just south of the mouth of the MS River on Monday afternoon. IF this forecast track pans out, we would expect the storm to make landfall Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Again, there is still a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, so please stay tuned to the NHC, the local weather office, and the local media outlets for more information through the weekend.

Go to the National Hurricane Center site for more information.

Severe Weather - See the Storm Prediction Center web site.

Tropical Weather - See the National Hurricane Center web site

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