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Short-term
(Tonight and Thursday):
As
Fay continues to move
up the east coast, our
area will remain under
northerly flow over the
short-term. There is also
some drier in the mid-levels
which is helping to keep
the atmosphere capped…I
don't expect much, if
any, convection through
tomorrow.
Long-term:
Our
area will remain under
northerly flow through
the beginning of the weekend
and conditions should
remain dry. However, by
Saturday, there could
be a slight increase in
moisture so we could see
some scattered showers/storms,
especially along the coast
with the help of the seabreeze…
Beyond
that, the focus turns
towards Gustav. Currently,
Gustav is struggling near
the coast of Haiti with
the influence of the high
terrain still influencing
its strength. Once it
gets away from Haiti ,
it should begin strengthening
more rapidly. So, right
now there is a waiting
game of when it will move
away from the coast and
when it will begin strengthening.
This should happen over
the next 12-24 hours…
After
that, most of the models
bring Gustav into the
Gulf of Mexico as a strengthening
hurricane. After that,
the models diverge. Right
now, they are forecasting
a landfall anywhere from
the TX coast to the FL/AL
border. The HWRF model
has shifted east some,
while the GFDL has shifted
its forecast back to the
west. Regardless, most
of the models keep the
storm to our west which
puts our area on the worst
side. So a landfall along
the central LA coast would
still increase our rain
chances late in the weekend
into early next week.
Forecaster:
Roger Martin |